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American ranching is facing a quiet but devastating crisis as limited private land ownership, declining grazing capacity, and increasing "agricultural lawfare" push multi-generational families to the brink of extinction. Livestock production west of the 100th meridian has become increasingly difficult for local producers due to federal land management and regulatory shifts. Because the federal government manages roughly 640 million acres, including 81% of Nevada and 67% of Utah, access to federal allotments managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) is a necessity for survival. The industry has suffered from a "one-way ratchet" of restrictions, with authorized BLM Animal Unit Months (AUMs) in Utah plummeting from 2.75 million in 1940 to fewer than 675,000 by 2009. Across the West, there has been a net loss of 9.5 million BLM AUMs since 1954, and today, approximately 29,000 allotments covering 24 million acres sit vacant or administratively closed. These challenges are compounded by "agricultural lawfare," where administrative and legal systems are used to pressure producers through heavy regulation and enforcement, often influenced by anti-grazing advocacy groups seeking to eliminate livestock from federal lands. The steady erosion of grazing rights threatens not only the economic stability of rural communities but also America’s national food security. Each AUM generates about $100 in annual local economic activity, and when these are eliminated, ranchers lose asset value and lenders lose loan collateral. To preserve the heritage and independence of the American West, these foundational problems of land access and regulatory overreach must be addressed before this unique way of life is pushed toward extinction.

The CPAC Coalition Against Christian Persecution, alongside leaders such as former Congressman Frank Wolf and Senator Ted Cruz, was on Capitol Hill, continuing to raise awareness about the escalating violence against Christians in Nigeria. Since 2009, more than 52,000 Christians have reportedly been killed by extremist groups, including Boko Haram, ISIS-West Africa Province (ISWAP), and Fulani militants. Entire communities have been devastated by targeted attacks, mass displacement, and the destruction of over 18,000 churches. These patterns of violence point to a sustained and deliberate effort to target Christians, leaving many communities living in fear and instability. This crisis is increasingly recognized as systematic persecution rather than isolated conflict. Christians are often targeted because of their faith, with attacks occurring in villages, churches, and during religious observances. The killing of 53 Christians on Palm Sunday stands as a stark example of the brutality faced by believers. Survivors are left to navigate not only the immediate trauma of violence but also the long-term consequences of displacement, economic hardship, and the loss of their communities and places of worship. Advocates and leaders have emphasized the importance of acknowledging the scale and severity of the crisis. The designation of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern highlights the seriousness of ongoing religious freedom violations and the need for sustained global attention. Voices like Frank Wolf have underscored the long-term nature of the violence and the urgent need to ensure that the suffering of these communities is neither ignored nor minimized. At its core, the mission of the CPAC Coalition Against Christian Persecution is to stand in defense of persecuted Christians and ensure their stories are heard. By highlighting the realities on the ground and amplifying the voices of those affected, the coalition seeks to maintain focus on protecting vulnerable communities and confronting the ongoing violence. The message remains clear: the persecution of Christians in Nigeria is a profound human rights crisis that demands awareness, moral clarity, and continued commitment to those who suffer for their faith.

China’s intellectual property theft is not incidental; it is a deliberate, state-backed strategy to undermine the American economy and seize global technological leadership. With losses estimated at $400–600 billion annually, this effort targets the core of U.S. innovation, eroding industries that account for nearly half of the nation’s GDP. This is not competition on a level playing field; it is a systematic attempt to shortcut progress by extracting and replicating American advancements. The attack extends well beyond economic damage. By targeting key sectors, China is weakening U.S. jobs, disrupting supply chains, and creating serious national security risks. In many cases, these efforts are amplified by gaps within the U.S. system itself, whether through the transfer of sensitive technologies or insufficient protections around critical data. China is not acting alone in exploiting these vulnerabilities, but it is leading a coordinated push that exposes just how interconnected economic and security threats have become. What makes this challenge more urgent is the mismatch in response. Chinese efforts operate at scale, backed by state resources and long-term strategy, while American companies are often left to defend themselves with limited support. By the time enforcement actions occur, the damage is already done, the technology has been taken, replicated, and deployed. This dynamic allows China to continuously close the gap, not through original innovation, but through strategic acquisition of U.S. intellectual property. Nowhere is this more evident than in artificial intelligence. China’s approach targets the full ecosystem, models, algorithms, training data, and hardware, allowing it to rapidly replicate and advance technologies developed in the United States. Even outdated American data is being leveraged to accelerate these efforts, producing lower-cost alternatives that compete globally. Combined with a state-driven system that prioritizes speed and scale, this creates a structural advantage that cannot be ignored. Confronting this challenge will require recognizing it for what it is: a coordinated economic and technological offensive, not a series of isolated incidents.

The claim that “MCOOL doesn’t work” gets slaughtered under basic scrutiny. Mandatory Country of Origin Labelling (MCOOL) did exactly what it was built for: arm American consumers with straight-up transparency about where their beef was born, raised, and slaughtered. Before Congress gutted it in late 2015 under World Trade Organisation pressure from Canada and Mexico, shoppers could spot the difference between genuine U.S.-raised beef and imported product right there on the package. That simple label shifted real market behaviour. When people had the choice, plenty voted with their wallets for American beef, creating a clear price premium for domestic product that rewarded U.S. ranchers who pour sweat into raising it right. Opposition never came from the heart of cattle country. Independent ranchers, rural families, and everyday consumers all stood to gain from a system that let origin transparency reward quality and hard work. The real pushback roared from the Big Four packers, the consolidated giants who control roughly 85% of U.S. beef processing. These outfits profit big by blending cheaper imported beef with domestic supplies and selling the whole mix as a uniform “American” product. Without mandatory labels, they gain maximum flexibility to source globally, squeeze margins, and shift the burden onto producers who lose any ability to differentiate their U.S.-born cattle. The Packers have long argued “beef is beef”, whether it hails from Montana, Manitoba, or Mazatlán, exactly why they fought tooth and nail against MCOOL. The economic body blows were no theory; they were admitted by the industry itself. In the In Re Cattle Antitrust Litigation, major packers explicitly stated in court filings that repealing MCOOL “spurred additional imports and caused domestic cattle prices to fall.” USDA analyses and market data backed it up: beef labelled as a product of Canada or Mexico simply couldn’t command the same price as U.S.-origin beef when consumers could see the difference. The price gap reflected a real preference for American-raised products. Once labels vanished, that market signal got erased overnight, imports flowed freer, and the advantage for U.S. cattle producers evaporated, exactly as packers had leveraged. Without MCOOL, American consumers routinely shell out premium grocery prices for beef that may include foreign-born product, while U.S. ranchers watch origin value bleed away. The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to levels not seen since the 1950s amid these pressures, and family ranches continue to disappear in states like Montana (down 25% since repeal, per some reports). MCOOL never blocked trade or dictated outcomes; it simply demanded honesty at the meat counter. When that transparency existed, markets and consumers responded by rewarding American agriculture. Bringing it back would restore that edge, not through mandates on outcomes, but by letting truth in labelling do the heavy lifting against a packer model that thrives in the dark.

Friday, May 1, 2026 in Beverly Hills, California CPAC is bringing top business leaders and innovators together for an exclusive gathering in Beverly Hills. On May 1, 2026, at the Waldorf Astoria Beverly Hills, CPAC will host a high-level forum focused on the future of American business, innovation, and global competitiveness. At a time of rapid economic, technological, and cultural transformation, leadership matters more than ever. This event will convene influential voices committed to defending free markets, advancing individual liberty, and pushing back against ideologies that undermine merit and growth. For $2,500.00 per-person, attendees can expect candid, forward-looking discussions centered on strengthening economic vitality, expanding opportunity, and shaping a more resilient future. Space is limited to ensure meaningful dialogue and high-impact connections. Secure your spot today at CPAC.org/ticket/90210 . We recommend booking your stay at our host hotel, the Waldorf Astoria Beverly Hills . Additional accommodations are available at the nearby sister property, The Beverly Hilton . For more information please contact, Alisa Sobol via email at ASobol@mail.conservative.org .

This May, CPAC is proud to host a dynamic slate of events designed to celebrate conservative leadership, strengthen our movement, and bring together supporters from across the country. Explore our upcoming events below and stay tuned for more details. CPAC Beverly Hills Summit May 1, 2026, Waldorf Astoria, Beverly Hills, CA CPAC is bringing top business leaders and innovators together for an exclusive gathering in Beverly Hills. Learn More at CPAC.org/90210 CPAC Women Warriors Summit May 20-22, 2026, Washington DC At a pivotal moment for our nation, strong, principled women are stepping forward to lead—and CPAC is proud to provide a platform to unite and empower them. On May 20–22 in Washington DC, CPAC will host the inaugural Women Warriors Summit, a first-of-its-kind gathering dedicated to equipping and elevating women who are shaping the future of our country through leadership, advocacy, and action. Learn More at CPAC.org/WW

By Gordon G. Chang   “No go on Gotion.”   That’s the rallying cry of Manteno residents campaigning to close a battery plant in that Illinois village, an hour south of Chicago. The same Chinese company, late last year, was forced to abandon a similar project in Michigan.   Gotion had planned to develop a $2.4 billion flagship factory to make battery parts in Green Charter Township, near Big Rapids. The Michigan Economic Development Corp. believes the Chinese company has now abandoned the project  and is therefore seeking to claw back subsidies.   “Gotion now admits the project is dead,” Robby Dube, the Eckland & Blando attorney for both the Green Charter and Manteno residents, told me last month. “I am incredibly proud of the brave citizens who stood up to fight for their community against immense pressure from the State of Michigan, which funneled millions of dollars to Gotion to purchase American farmland, and from Gotion itself. They never faltered and never wavered.”   Green Charter residents mobilized, filing lawsuits, petitioning officials, and demonstrating in the streets. Finally, an exhausted company and weary state government threw in the towel.   The people in Manteno have now become activists in the same mold as those from Michigan.    In September 2023, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced  that Gotion would build a $2 billion plant in his state to manufacture lithium batteries for EVs. The state then awarded the company half a billion dollars in total incentives, including tax benefits. Pritzker said the facility would create 2,600 jobs.   Gotion had originally planned to split operations between the two states by manufacturing battery cells in Michigan and shipping them to Illinois for assembly into battery packs. Now, after defeat in Michigan, the company has looked to both manufacture and assemble in Manteno. Its plant has now begun operations there.   Local Manteo residents are worried. “The Chinese-controlled Gotion plant is a threat to our community,” Amanda Piker, a resident and founding member of Concerned Citizens of Manteno, told me in 2024. “If the plan is fully developed, it will add thousands more people to our town of 9,000 and create stress on our schools, housing, and infrastructure. The deal was made behind closed doors with no community input.”   The opposition to the Chinese company in Illinois has been fierce. About 50 townspeople first gathered in a parking lot, one evening in September 2023, where they decided to organize and fight the Chinese company. They formed the Concerned Citizens of Manteno, which filed a lawsuit against the Village of Manteno and Gotion in the Circuit Court of Kankakee County.   The amended complaint states the plaintiffs oppose the plant for “environmental, national security, health, safety, and good governance reasons.” Among other claims, the residents in their lawsuit argue that Manteno officials did not adhere to local rules when they greenlighted the Gotion plant, especially prohibitions against “highly toxic chemicals.” Gotion is contesting the allegations.   “Only someone who hates America and taxpayers would give Chinese Communist Party-backed Gotion a red cent, let alone a $536 million tax subsidy from Illinois and potentially $7 billion more from federal taxpayers,” said Jeanne Ives, a former Illinois state representative and leading critic of the Manteno facility, in emailed comments in 2024.   As the website of Manteno’s Freedom Party states of the Gotion plant, the community “does not want it or need it, cannot afford it, and has laws which do not allow it.” The party last April elected two to the six-member village Board of Trustees and prevailed in the mayoralty race.   Four other trustees support Gotion, but new Mayor Annette Lamore tells me some of them are changing their minds because the company is not keeping promises to the village, especially promises regarding the operation of a fire brigade   “Gotion has brought people together and made them realize how important it is to pay attention to what is happening,” says Lamore.   “The No-Gotion fight is truly a David versus Goliath one,” Ives told me in March. “The Concerned Citizens of Manteno are fighting big government and big corporate, and their lawyers are backed by unlimited taxpayer funds and money coming from the Chinese. The Concerned Citizens are heroes.”   In Michigan, organized residents took on their governor and the world’s largest totalitarian state and still won. Said Dube, “The fight goes on in Illinois, but it’s a fight we’ve demonstrated can be won.”   Gordon G. Chang is the author of   Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America   and   The Coming Collapse of China . Follow him on X @GordonGChang .

America’s public education system is in freefall, and the numbers expose the disaster. The latest National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) reveals that a majority of students across every grade level are not proficient in reading or math. Among 12th graders, reading scores have plunged to their lowest levels in decades, with 32% now performing below basic, a shocking rise since 1992. Math proficiency sits at a dismal 22%, the worst on record. While kids drown in foundational skills they desperately need for life, schools are abandoning academics and replacing them with political activism.  Instead of focusing on recovery and excellence, teachers’ unions and radical activist networks are aggressively recruiting students for left-wing political warfare. In the lead-up to May Day 2026, the socialist holiday tied to strikes, disruption, and anti-capitalist rage, national groups are coordinating mass protests, walkouts, and economic sabotage. The National Education Association (NEA), the largest teachers’ union in America, has rolled out its “Solidarity Toolkit” to push educators into mobilizing kids against what it calls the “billionaire takeover” and “Trump-Musk Coup. ” They’re promoting “walk-ins” staged protests inside school buildings during the regular school day, to agitate, organize, and turn students into foot soldiers for their agenda.  This isn’t innocent “student activism. ” It’s deliberate grooming. Taxpayer-funded unions like the NEA are hijacking public schools, paid for by hardworking American families, to serve as staging grounds for partisan militancy. While students struggle to read or do basic math, they’re being trained to chant against capitalism, skip class for “solidarity,” and support nationwide strikes under slogans like “No School. No Work. No Shopping.” Public resources meant for education are instead fueling radical mobilization that prioritizes ideology over opportunity.  Enough is enough. At a time when academic achievement is collapsing, and parents expect schools to deliver real skills and stability, classrooms must remain centers of learning, not indoctrination factories pumping out the next generation of leftist activists. It’s time to hold these unions accountable, refocus education on reading, writing, arithmetic, and genuine civics, and stop the socialist takeover of our kids’ futures. Read More: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/inside-antifa-linked-groups-plan-structurally-change-us-may-day-unrest-approaches

April 8, 2026 – CPAC is coordinating a grassroots and communications campaign to defeat the Socialist/Democrats’ illegitimate redistricting amendment that is currently being voted on. This measure is a raw partisan power grab that would disenfranchise voters, override the bipartisan Virginia redistricting commission, which was approved by 65.7% in 2020. This power grab would rig congressional maps, flipping a 6-5 Democratic edge in Congressional seats to a 10-1 Democratic advantage through extreme gerrymandering. Early voting is already underway at record levels. The time to act is now. Rally & Vote No Join CPAC for our Rally & Vote No event focused on defending fair representation and stopping unconstitutional efforts to manipulate the electoral process in Virginia. This Rally & Vote No series  will bring together grassroots activists, policy leaders, and concerned citizens to take a stand against partisan overreach and protect the integrity of our elections. Learn more at CPAC.org/VoteNo/Events . CPAC’s leading voices are calling on every Virginia Republican, conservative, & fair-minded voter to treat the upcoming redistricting referendum as a top-tier priority & deliver overwhelming turnout to defeat Democrats’ deceptive power grab. Virginia Democrats want to disenfranchise minority, rural, independent, & conservative voters: Democrats are trying to override the bipartisan redistricting commission that Virginians approved in 2020 with 65.7% of the vote. CPAC echoes Former VA AG Jason Miyares:  “The bipartisan redistricting commission was a voter-approved reform designed to take politics out of map-drawing.”  Former VA AG Jason Miyares also stated: “They’re not telling Virginians that, if this passes, it will be the single most gerrymandered map in the entire country. Republican Party of VA Chairman Jeff Ryer   warned : “Their amendment will rig our congressional maps, override the will of two-thirds of Virginia voters who demanded fair redistricting in 2020, & cement one-party control in Washington…This is a moment for total unity & total engagement.” Instead of honoring that clear mandate for fair maps, they are pushing a partisan gerrymander. A “YES” vote would create the worst efficiency gap in the nation (-24.02%), making Virginia the most gerrymandered state in America. Virginia Democrats Are Already Failing–and Deceiving–Virginians: Governor Spanberger’s approval rating has already dropped to 46% — the highest disapproval of any Virginia governor at this point in their term since 1994. Spanberger  banned all registrars and polling places from showing voters the actual maps a “yes” vote would create. Democrats violated state law by failing to post the proposed amendment at every courthouse 90 days before the election. The Ballot Question:   “Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia's standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”  Democrats dishonestly frame this as “restoring fairness,” but it is raw partisan gerrymandering designed to give them one-sided, near-total control   (See Figure 1). Currently, Virginia’s congressional delegation stands at 6 Democrats & 5 Republicans. If passed, their gerrymandering scheme will create a 10-1 or 91% Democrat advantage, despite claiming only about 50% of the statewide popular vote.  (See Figure 1) Ballot Red Flags: An election is being held in March & April  with almost no public notice. No specific options & pertinent information for voters  — only a simple “yes” or “no.” Biased Language: “yes” vote will “restore fairness,” implies “no” vote supports unfairness. Their Selfish Goal:  Steal four Republican seats to block President Trump’s America-First agenda by consolidating power ahead of the 2026 midterms. Under Democrats’ Rigged Proposal: Hampton Roads: Lose 1 congressional seat (from 3 to 2), hurting Virginia’s 2nd-largest population center. 5 congressmen would live within 20 miles of each other in Northern Virginia. Dems’ disconnected district pairings ignore communities of interest : Arlington  paired with Powhatan; Danville  paired with Richmond; York County  paired with Alexandria Fairfax County would be split into 5  separate districts; Prince William County into 4. Disenfranchising Minority and Rural Voters:  Spreading minority voters across multiple districts dilutes  their voting power & influence. Packing large numbers of minority voters into one district minimizes  their impact on surrounding districts. Result : Minority voices are silenced; Northern Virginia gains statewide control. FUNDING: This isn’t about “fair maps.” National Democrats are pouring over $55 million from a Hakeem Jeffries-tied PAC & Soros-backed groups to rig VA’s congressional maps for their own political gain. See Figures 2 & 3 for specifics. Early voting is already outpacing last year’s gubernatorial election. There is no time to sit on the sidelines.  Every  Republican voter must get out & vote early to stop democrats from disenfranchising minority voters with one-party Democratic dominance for years to come. Vote NO  on the illegitimate redistricting referendum. Protect the four seats Democrats are trying to steal. Defend fair, constitutional maps & the will of Virginia’s communities. The future of Virginia’s voice in Congress & the General Assembly hangs in the balance.   Figure 1: Virginia's current and proposed congressional districts Figures 2 & 3: Funding Figure 2. VOTE YES @ ~$55.7 million : Virginians for Fair Elections Cash Contributions Dominated by massive partisan Democratic dark money: House Majority Forward: ~$29.3 million (tied to Democratic House leadership; highly partisan, aims to flip Republican congressional seats) The Fairness Project: ~$11 million (progressive/dark money group) (Soros) Fund for Policy Reform Inc.: $5 million (left-wing donor vehicle/lobbying organization, known for funding Dem causes) Belongs to Open Society Foundations–Soros' giving network . American Opportunity Action: $1,000,000 Legislators: Nancy Pelosi for Congress:  $20,000 Pete Aguilar for Congress (CA-33): $25,000 Katherine Clark for Congress: $25,000 Other notable: Global Impact Social Welfare Fund, Democratic Party of Virginia in-kind, League of Conservation Voters, etc. Note: Heavily funded by out-of-state Democratic dark money groups that do not disclose their own donors — a clear effort to rig maps in favor of Democrats. Figure 3. VOTE NO @ ~$12.05 million : Virginians for Fair Maps Cash Contributions Mostly large cash reports Primarily  Self-transfers  from the committee itself: ~$16.5 million, multiple entries, likely from fundraising initiatives Notable donors: American Potential: $250,000 (some Republican ties but opaque) National Shooting Sports Foundation: $50,000 (gun rights group) Smaller individual/business contributions (e.g., Jon M. Peterson $100k, Thomas McInerney $50k) A new Washington Post-Schar School poll shows that a slim majority  of Virginia voters currently favors the redistricting measure, with 52%  of likely voters saying they support redrawing the maps and 47%  opposed. However, Republicans hold the enthusiasm advantage , which gives us a clear path to victory if we turn out our voters. Democrats are fear-mongering that Republican wins will ban abortion nationwide Targeted Pro-life VA Republican Congressmen Rob Wittman and Jennifer Kiggan s oppose  a national abortion ban, insisting it be decided by the states, as the Supreme Court ruled in Dobbs. This power grab will silence principled conservatives who reject federal overreach and trust Virginians to decide their own laws — not  “reproductive rights.”

Join CPAC for a two-event action series focused on defending fair representation and stopping unconstitutional efforts to manipulate the electoral process in Virginia. This Rally & Vote No series  will bring together grassroots activists, policy leaders, and concerned citizens to take a stand against partisan overreach and protect the integrity of our elections. RSVP to attend at CPAC.org/VoteNo/RSVP . April 16, Leesburg, VA Thursday, April 16, 2026 4:00 PM ET 750 Miller Drive, Leesburg, VA Kick off the series with a high-energy rally featuring conservative leaders and advocates speaking out against Virginia Democrats’ gerrymandering power grab. What to Expect Remarks from CPAC leaders and guest speakers A breakdown of the unconstitutional redistricting efforts Insight into how these actions impact Virginia voters Opportunities to connect with fellow activists and supporters This rally will energize attendees and set the stage for continued action. RSVP to attend at CPAC.org/VoteNo/RSVP .

Democracy is under threat in Virginia, and the time to act is now. On Thursday, April 16th at 4:00 PM, Former Governor Glenn Youngkin and key Republican leaders from the 10th Congressional District will rally in the heart of Northern Virginia to sound the alarm. Their message is urgent and clear: the proposed redistricting constitutional amendment on the ballot is a blatant partisan power grab that would silence your voice and undermine the integrity of Virginia elections for years to come. In 2020, Virginians overwhelmingly voted by a margin of 65.7% to establish a bipartisan redistricting commission, a fair and balanced safeguard against partisan manipulation of electoral maps . Now, Democrats are attempting to throw that all away, concentrating redistricting power in the hands of a few partisan insiders, fueled by millions in out-of-state dark money aimed at misleading Virginia voters. The consequences would be staggering: Virginia's congressional delegation could swing from a near-even 5-6 split to a lopsided 1-10 outcome, effectively erasing the voices of minority, rural, independent, and conservative voters across the Commonwealth. Thursday's rally represents an important opportunity for Virginians across the 10th District and beyond to engage directly with their leaders and make their opposition to this radical redistricting amendment known. With early voting already underway and Election Day on April 21st approaching quickly, the urgency could not be greater. This amendment, if passed, will reshape Virginia's political landscape for a generation. Virginians who believe in fair, transparent, and accountable elections are encouraged to attend Thursday's event and cast their vote as NO before or on April 21st.

CPAC is closely watching this very important election in Hungary today. We stand firmly with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Hungarian people as they vote. We have proudly held CPAC Hungary five times, and each gathering has been wildly successful, bringing together conservatives from across Europe and the United States to champion sovereignty, family, and national identity. President Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp have all endorsed Prime Minister Orbán. He is a true example of a leader with strong conservative values who has courageously stood up to elitists and globalists from the EU and beyond to protect what is right for his country. We are with you, Hungary. Election Updates 44.5% for FIDESZ 42% for TISZA 7% for Mi Hazánk The rest below the threshold. How this will translate into seats, we most likely won’t find out quickly, and certainly not today. Of course, this could still change since it’s only a projection based on a model, but this is what Hungarian media are currently reporting. How results are released (“batches”) Hungary reports results progressively as precincts finish counting. When you see: • “10% counted” • “45% counted” • “80% counted” this does not represent a random national sample. It reflects which parts of the country have reported so far. The typical reporting order 1. Small rural precincts (fastest) 2. Medium towns 3. Large cities, especially Budapest (slowest) Because of this, each batch has a predictable political bias. ⸻ What each batch actually means Early batches (roughly 5%–40%) • Dominated by rural and smaller municipalities • Historically more favorable to Fidesz Interpretation: • Orbán will often appear to have a large early lead • This lead is usually inflated, not final • Media headlines at this stage often overstate his position What to watch: • Are opposition candidates competitive in districts already reporting? • Is Orbán’s margin unusually large even for rural areas? ⸻ Middle batches (40%–80%) • More representative mix of the country • Includes mid-sized cities and some urban districts Interpretation: • This is where the true trajectory becomes visible • If Orbán’s lead holds steady, that is a strong sign of control • If his lead shrinks meaningfully, the race is tightening What to watch: • District-by-district changes, not just national percentages • Whether opposition begins flipping or closing gaps in key districts ⸻ Late batches (80%–100%) • Heavy inclusion of Budapest and large urban areas • Often includes slower-counting precincts Interpretation: • This is where opposition parties tend to perform better • Final margins settle here What to watch: • Does the late urban vote narrow the gap significantly, or only slightly? • If Orbán still leads comfortably after urban votes are in, the outcome is effectively decided ⸻ Why batches can be misleading A headline like: • “Fidesz leads by 15 points with 30% counted” usually means: • Rural areas have reported • Urban areas have not So the correct interpretation is: • “Fidesz is performing as expected in early-reporting areas” —not necessarily that the election is decided. ⸻ The key indicator inside each batch The most important signal is not the national percentage, but: District performance • Are Fidesz candidates winning most districts? • Are margins close or comfortable? Even if national vote share tightens later, winning districts early and consistently strongly favors Orbán. ⸻ What the batches mean for Orbán specifically Scenario 1: Strong early lead, stable through middle batches • Orbán maintains large margins even as more votes come in • Opposition fails to close the gap Meaning: • Clear path to victory • Likely strong parliamentary majority ⸻ Scenario 2: Strong early lead, but shrinking in middle batches • Early rural advantage fades as urban votes come in Meaning: • Race is competitive • Still favorable for Orbán if he holds most districts • But signals reduced dominance ⸻ Scenario 3: Lead collapses late • Large early lead narrows sharply once Budapest reports Meaning: • Opposition significantly overperforming expectations • Potential upset or much tighter parliament ⸻ Scenario 4: Weak early performance • Orbán’s margins are small even in early rural batches Meaning: • Warning sign • Indicates broader national weakness • Increases probability of a close or unfavorable outcome ⸻ Quick way to interpret results in real time When a new batch comes out, ask: 1. Where are these votes coming from? Early = rural; late = urban 2. Is Orbán’s margin changing? Stable = strong position Shrinking = pressure 3. Who is winning districts? This matters more than raw percentages ⸻ Bottom line • Early batches tend to overstate Orbán’s strength • Middle batches reveal whether that strength is real or inflated • Late batches show whether the opposition can meaningfully close the gap • If Orbán maintains a solid lead through the middle phase, the outcome is usually settled Hungary, 1.4% counted: 98.6% of votes not yet counted National parliament election Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 53.2% (-0.9) TISZA-EPP: 38.7% (+38.7) MH-ESN: 6.1% (+0.2) DK-S&D: 0.7% (+0.7) MKKP→G/EFA: 0.6% (-2.7) +/- vs. 2022 election Hungary, 6.5% counted: National parliament election TISZA-EPP: 47.8% (+9.1) Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 43.7% (-9.5) MH-ESN: 6.2% (+0.1) DK-S&D: 1.1% (+0.4) MKKP→G/EFA: 0.7% (+0.1) +/- vs. 1.4% counted Hungary, List vote, 10.4% counted: National parliament election TISZA-EPP: 49.4% (+1.6) Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 42.0% (-1.7) MH-ESN: 6.1% (-0.1) DK-S&D: 1.2% (+0.1) MKKP→G/EFA: 0.7% +/- vs. 6.5% counted