The longer the Ukraine crisis stretches out, the more it resembles a worldwide Rorschach test.  It forces every nation to reveal its innermost thoughts and desires.

Given America’s weakness and perceived decline under President Biden, and China’s and Russia’s new assertiveness, the inkblots on the Rorschach test have changed dramatically from just a year ago.

America’s allies no longer trust us, and our adversaries are emboldened. Friend and foe alike are reassessing their interests and ambitions accordingly. Those inkblots have yet to settle in their new configuration and could re-form themselves even more so by next year at this time.

Here is where stand today – a whole lot of questions, but very few sure-fire answers.

Russia wants to bring Ukraine back under its historic control, by intimidation and force if necessary. It’s an essential part of Putin’s lifelong ambition to restore the Russian empire and stop NATO’s advance.

He’s also using the Ukraine crisis to drive a wedge between NATO members. Putin wants NATO to pledge they will not allow Ukraine to join.